Lineup Prognostication

Here it comes. The Dodgers are facing a right-handed pitcher tonight. But last night, both Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig raked. Kemp had a breakout night with two doubles and a run scored. Puig had two RBI hits, including an amazing triple that might have been an inside the park home run, if only he would run immediately after hitting the ball. Meanwhile, all Andre Ethier put up were goose eggs, including an 0-2 with RISP.

So which players will be in Don Mattingly’s lineup tonight? The Phillies are starting right hander Kyle Kendrick against the Dodgers. His career statistics against lefties compared to righties are as follows (BAA/OBPA/SLGA/OPSA):

Lefties            .284/.351/.420/.737

Righties          .272/.313/.381/.669

 

As we can see, left handers on average have had a mild advantage. But let’s look in depth, as Donnie probably will, at the specific batters’ career numbers against Kendrick: (BA/OBP/SLG/OPS in PA(plate appearances):

Kemp              .400/.400/.400/.800 in 15 PA’s (six singles)

Puig                .833/.833/1.333/2.167 in 6 PA’s (double, triple)

Ethier             .273/.360/.636/.996 in 25 PA’s (with 2 homers)

Crawford        .333/.333/.333/.667 in 3 PA’s

Van Slyke        never faced him

 

Just for fun, here is the rest of the team:

Ramirez          .257/.278/.429/.706 in 36 PA’s (with 1 homer)

Gonzalez        .333/.500/.444/.944 in 12 PA’s

Uribe              .400/.400/.600/1.000 in 5 PA’s

Gordon           .000/.333/.000/.333 in 3 PA’s

In the outfield, Puig rakes, while Ethier and Kemp are very good against Kendrick. Carl Crawford hasn’t seen a lot of time against him. I’m guessing that Donnie will look at these numbers, not see any extra base hits from Kemp, and decide that it’s Kemp’s turn to ride the pine.

 

My Projection of Donnie’s Lineup:

Gordon 2b

Crawford lf

Ramirez ss

Gonzalez 1b

Puig rf

Ethier cf

Uribe 3b

Federowicz c

Haren p

 

My preferred lineup (okay, I stole it from Kahliforni):

Gordon 2b

Puig rf

Ramirez ss

Gonzalez 1b

Kemp cf

Ethier lf

Uribe 3b

Butera c (though we could say FedEx)

Haren p

 

The real meat of this lineup is 1-5, with Gordon setting the table and confusing the pitcher and catcher. Then Puig, Ramirez, Gonzalez, and Kemp just drive the ball like crazy. Ethier and Uribe chip in the best they can, then the 8-9 spots are basically just place-holders until we get back to the top of the lineup.