When Does a Small Sample Size Become Large?


Alex Guerrero has gotten off to a hot start in 2015. Is it real? Will it continue?

Compare him to Yasiel Puig in 2013. Puig had four home runs in his first week, but it took him another eight games to get to his fifth home run. Both the 2013 Puig and the 2015 Guerrero had great success during Spring Training. But the similarities end there. Puig spent a couple months in AA ball in 2013, while Guerrero did his minor league stint in 2014.  As part of that process, Alex lost half of one ear. Also, Guerrero had a dismal showing in the majors in 2014, getting just one hit in thirteen at bats.

But let’s take a look at his consistency this year with the Dodgers. We’ll go through all twenty-four of his plate appearances. Source of data is Baseball Reference.
1. April 11th: Ground out to the SS/3B hole
2. April 11th: Ground out up the middle
3. April 12th: Ground out to the SS/3B hole
4. April 12th: Line drive Single to RF
5. April 12th: Ground out to pitcher
6. April 12th: Ground ball Double to LF
7. April 12th: Line drive Home Run to Deep LF/CF
8. April 13th: Strikeout swinging
9. April 13th: Sacrifice fly to RF
10. April 13th: Ground out to 3B
11. April 13th: Ground out to SS
12. April 13th: Line drive Single to CF
13. April 14th: Pinch-hit Fly ball Home Run to Deep LF/CF
14. April 17th: Pinch-hit Fly ball out to Deep LF
15. April 19th: Pinch-hit Fly ball out to Deep CF
16. April 21st: Pinch-hit ground ball Double to LF
17. April 22nd: Pinch-hit Fly ball Home Run to Deep LF
18. April 23rd: Line drive Home Run to Deep LF/CF
19. April 23rd: Ground out to 1B
20. April 23rd: Line drive Single to RF
21. April 25th: Pinch-hit Walk
22. April 26th: Pop-fly Single to short LF/CF
23. April 26th: Line Drive Home Run to Deep LF/CF
24. April 26th: Ground out to SS

This guy straight out hits the ball. He doesn’t look at third strikes. He doesn’t off strike out at all (only once in 24 plate appearances). He’s not too interested in waiting around for a walk; why should he when he bats .500 with a 1.273 slugging percentage? He seems to hit to all fields, although his home runs are all to left field or left field/center field.

Will Guerrero’s torrential hitting pace last? Will the opposing pitchers figure him out? Well, we will never know if the Dodgers don’t put him in the lineup on a regular basis.


262 Responses to When Does a Small Sample Size Become Large?

  1. crash24now says:

    Now let’s see if Donnie starts Guerrero against Lincecum tonight.

  2. lbirken says:

    Guerrero does present a challenging issue for the Dodgers. There was the challenge of what happens in spring training if he does not make the roster. Alex had a decent spring but there still seems to be a problem with his defense and a lack of confidence from management about where he should play. Clearly they did not think second base was his position per the signing of Howie Kendrick, a move that so far has paid off for the Dodgers. Is Alex a shortstop? Not as far as the Dodgers were concerned with the signing of Rollins, a move that so far has not paid off, at least offensively. That leaves third base where Uribe seems to be entrenched, at least for the present. There has to be a reason the Dodgers said Guerrero might play left field. That should tell us that they are trying to find a way to get Alex more playing time.

    Will he continue to hit like he has? Of course not, but he may have forced management’s hand with the quick offensive fall off we have seen the past two series. Did anyone expect Agon to hit at the pace he set in the first two weeks?

    I think this team has more serious problems with pitching. How long will the revolving door spin as pitchers come and go to fill the back end of the rotation? When will the bullpen roles be defined? Obviously getting Jansen back will make this task a bit easier.

    Hopefully getting back to Dodger Stadium puts some life into the Dodgers and the bats come alive.

  3. crash24now says:

    Lineup versus Lincecum

    Rollins SS
    Ethier RF
    Gonzalez 1B
    Kendrick 2B
    Grandal C
    Crawford LF
    Uribe 3B
    Pederson CF
    Anderson P

  4. Dodger4life says:

    Just think… If Guerrero’s contract wasn’t worded the way it was…he’d be stuck in AAA! And then Little Jo-Jo’s Horseshit would really be flinging road apples!!

  5. 32and53fan says:

    Just play the man for a week and see what happens. If there is a lead, he can be pulled in the last couple of innings for defensive purposes. If he doesn’t start, he is a good pinch hitter in a critical situation. Nothing wrong with that. Meanwhile, keep him working with Tim Wallach at 3rd and build up arm strength for those long throws.

  6. crash24now says:

    Brandon McCarthy has a UCL tear and he’s out for the 2015 season. Looks like the new front office’s method of bolstering the starting rotation by using “very good pitchers but injury prone pitchers” is not playing out too well.

    Zach Lee is much improved in AAA this year compared to last year. His WHIP has gone from 1.537 to 0.842 (19 innings this year). I know, I know, small sample size. But he’s going in the right direction. Looks like we’ll need him.

  7. crash24now says:

    Maybe we can trade an outfielder for a starting pitcher.

  8. crash24now says:

    Until Ryu comes back, our rotation looks something like:

    Anderson (until HE gets hurt)

    …with Wieland and Zach Lee waiting in the wings for the next guy to get hurt.

    As long as we don’t have to go back to Fausto.

  9. kahliforni says:

    Pretty daunting pitching staff right now. Pardon me if I cackle a bit, what with the sabermetric boys losing Peralta and McCarthy the same week to the DL, one for the season, and who-knows-how-long for the other. They refuse to budge on the old-man infield–granted, it’s early–and they’d better wish upon a star that Jansen and Ryu can come back strong. I just hope the fawning LA media and the Guggs don’t use injuries as an excuse to let Donnie off the hook for whatever he does mixing and matching and closing his eyes. Speed and youth, Guggs, speed and youth.

  10. Dodger4life says:

    I’m not sure the Dodgers can beat these scrappy Giants, with their scrappy manager on a consistent bases. I mean with a bench of Van Slyke, Guerrero, Ethier and Turner you’d think we’d have a good chance late in the game to pull off a win. Not so during the last series as the Giants walked off on us not once, but twice!!
    I hope I’m wrong!!!

  11. trublu4ever says:

    Wow….nice DP!

  12. oldbrooklynfan says:

    I’m surprised that Guerrero’s not in the lineup. I actually expected him to be in it. All we can do now is hope we beat the Giants.

  13. trublu4ever says:

    Sorry, but, Grandal is not a #5 hitter. Oh, right, we have DumbDonnie as manager!

  14. The Beav says:

    Out of 30 managers in the bigs, how many beside Donnie Dumbass wouldn’t have Guerrero in there? Think we could find 1 or 2?

  15. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Woo Not good.

  16. The Beav says:

    Well that was pathetic.

  17. The Beav says:

    BTW, we don’t seem to have any luck giving out $48M to pitchers. Friedman’s folly. Have to say we at least got 1 more win out of him than Ned did Schmidt.

    Don’t see how we’re going to miss a guy though that gave up 9 HRs in 23 innings and carried an ERA close to 6.

  18. oldbrooklynfan says:

    WTG Kendrick.

  19. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Thanks for that run, Giants.

  20. trublu4ever says:

    Hmmm….Carl out….SVS delivers a hit!

  21. vl4eccjr says:

    Lincecum is throwing BP! 🙂

  22. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Uribe has a 9 game hitting streak.

  23. trublu4ever says:

    Keep it going boys!

  24. The Beav says:

    Nice inning, but Rollins is worthless.

  25. vl4eccjr says:

    How does Dildonnie justify leaving Rollins in the leadoff spot with his B.A. this far south of the Mendoza line?!

  26. The Beav says:

    Nice shutdown inning from Anderson after they got him some runs.

  27. lbirken says:

    The Dodgers must caught the injury bug from the Lakers.

  28. lbirken says:

    Only Vin would ask us to feel for a Giant’s player who not only is struggling at the plate but also has a child with a debilitating health issue.

  29. oldbrooklynfan says:

    The Giants are cutting in.

  30. lbirken says:

    Will somebody spray some pest control on Aoki.

  31. trublu4ever says:

    Damn, he’s losing it!

  32. vl4eccjr says:

    Once again, giving up early walks to the opposition comes back to bite!

  33. Dodger4life says:

    Little Jo-Jo’s Horseshit trots his way to the hill…

  34. The Beav says:

    I’m not thinking much of Anderson as a pitcher either. Why not give Lee and Wieland a shot?

  35. The Beav says:

    Why bring in Frias? He sucks.

  36. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Darn those Giants.

  37. oldbrooklynfan says:

    You have to give the Giants credit, they are a scrappy bunch.

  38. vl4eccjr says:

    I’m amazed they’re still clinging to a slim lead.

  39. lbirken says:

    Now we have a test of the bullpens.

  40. Dodger4life says:

    Come on Juan both those pitches were above the strike zone!

  41. lbirken says:

    Dodger bats quiet again.

  42. oldbrooklynfan says:


  43. vl4eccjr says:

    Woo hoo!
    WTG Joc!

  44. trublu4ever says:


  45. Dodger4life says:

    Man that kid is a better 8 hole hitter than Kemp!!

  46. vl4eccjr says:

    J-Roll barely batting his weight now. . . 😦

    • The Beav says:

      How in the hell did Donnie anoint this a-hole the leadoff hitter even before ST started. What the hell good are metrics if you totally ignore them?

  47. The Beav says:

    What do you think – 3 HRs a month from Joc = successful year?

    • vl4eccjr says:

      I say so far so good. He needs to move up in the order though. As several mentioned previously, maybe try him leading off.

    • Dodger4life says:

      I wouldn’t call that unsuccessful, but with the warmer air of the upcoming summer months and the smaller parks of the east coast to look forward too….I’d think he has a shot to better those numbers? Providing he makes solid adjustments along the way…

  48. colliethec says:

    Did I miss something? After Joc hit his dinger they had Frias bat and bunt out & then pulled him before he faced the 1st batter the next inning. I’m just glancing at my phone as I’m not able to watch the game.

    • The Beav says:

      Typical Donnie move.

    • Dodger4life says:

      I missed that as well, but Donnie has done that before this season…I guess he’s saving his bench in case this one goes extra innings???

      • Dodger4life says:

        He’s already short two players with them carrying 13 pitchers and Van Slyke replacing Crawford.

      • lbirken says:

        I don’t have a problem with this. Why waste a pinch hitter with two outs and no o e on base. Besides, the bench is a player short tonight with Crawford leaving the game.

        • Dodger4life says:

          I’d add that both Guerrero and Turner are depth in case anyone in the infield gets hurt and we’ve already see two players become injured on successive pitches this season, when Turner was spiked and Uribe pulled a hammy…

        • colliethec says:

          Ok – I thought there was no one out with your 1 & 2 hitters coming up. 2 outs I guess that’s cool – but no one out is questionable to me.

          • crash24now says:

            Situation: Bottom of the sixth, we are up 4-3. Joc hits a solo home run, we are up 5-3, no outs, pitcher due up, Guerrero and Turner on the bench.

            Not enough bench players? Maybe we don’t need nine relievers and a bench of only four guys, three guys when you exclude the backup catcher.

  49. vl4eccjr says:

    WTG Justin!!
    El Rojo!!!

  50. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Turner’s shot could ice the game.

  51. trublu4ever says:

    Thank-you, JT!

  52. The Beav says:

    That definitely helped.

  53. lbirken says:

    I can hear the cry now for Turner to play more now.

  54. colliethec says:

    Watching now!! Nice bomb! I for one don’t think Turner is an everyday player. I think Donnie has used him the correct way. Also I looked back and there were no outs when he had Frias bunt.

  55. vl4eccjr says:

    Another outstanding job from the bullpen!

  56. trublu4ever says:

    Way to go Boys!

  57. Dodger4life says:

    Chalk up a win…and against the despised ones too boot!!

  58. lbirken says:

    Good to get the first game of the series. Looking forward to tomorrow’s game.

  59. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Well, that does it.

  60. crash24now says:

    Guerrero has motivated both Uribe and Turner to hit better, lest they lose playing time.

  61. The Beav says:

    Just took a look at the highlight from the game. What the hell was the dickish move done by Timmy when the ump wanted to see the ball? What a prick.

  62. JhallWally says:

    Wow!! Nice win!! I am disappointed that Anderson could not go more innings.. But the bullpen was nails… I can’t figure out why Dildon hasn’t moved Joc into the lead off slot and bat Rollins 8th.. The guys OBP is over ,400.. I’d really like to see Grandal get hot.

    It is unfortunate but we will need injuries for Dildon to actually play our best lineup….

    • trublu4ever says:

      I think Anderson was a tad irritated that Donnie pulled him! Luckily for Dildon, it worked out this time. Unfortunately I think Donnie has more luck than skill working for him.

      • JhallWally says:

        I think you are right Tru.. Dildon has been very lucky so far.. But, I can’t see his luck holding out if he keeps making such stupid mistakes… I just don’t get why he is so resistant to change. Baseball is a constantly changing environment. You need to evolve and adapt… Dildon is just stuck in the Torre AL. He doesn’t quite get it… JMO!!

      • The Beav says:

        I have to say though, pulling Anderson was the right move. He just totally lost it like turning off a light switch. I don’t really think Frias was the right choice to get out of a jam, but it worked out.

        Donnie will do what he always does with the line up and not get it right until sometime in August. That’ll only be because of injury and/or Friedman trading someone, not because of any acumen.

  63. koufax1963 says:

    well that was sweet last night, all gnat fans in my area quiet.
    well with Crawford out, the OF may look a bit better both offensively and defensively, Good game, did not hit into DPs like last time.
    I understand that knock on Rollins, but I think putting Joc in 8 hole is a building tool for him, he wont be there all the time, and J-roll walked twice, and that 2nd inning fly out, was really an outstanding catch by Maxwell. but that was last night……….
    my person of disdain is Grandal, when is the hitting to start?
    but with the win I cant get too critical, even on Donnie boy, he didn’t let Anderson finish the inning , but really a two out walk, and then Anderson couldn’t seal the deal, yep it is a piss-off, but you got to go 5 innings, and he was getting really risky.
    So tonight is Donnie loading up on Rightys vs. the bummad?, that might be a mistake as dre and joc are hitting.
    GO Dodgers!

  64. crash24now says:

    After that catch and double play started by Joc, I really don’t want to see anybody else playing center field. Joc’s #1 skill is his defense. He also has obvious skills in hitting, hitting for power, and speed. He needs to work on his strikeout rate and reading the pitchers for stolen bases. Joc needs to be starting every day, same as Puig (when healthy).

  65. crash24now says:

    Could we just stop batting Grandal in the five hole already? I think Donnie puts him there because the majority of Grandal’s starts in San Diego were in the four hole and five hole. But that’s only because prior to this year, San Diego’s hitting was pathetic. Bud Black didn’t have anybody else to put in the four and five holes.

    We do. Put Crawford or Pederson or Van Slyke or Guerrero or anybody else but Grandal in the five hole. This guy is a #6 hitter at best.

  66. crash24now says:

    Can we have a lineup as follows against MadBum tonight?

    Turner ss
    Guerrero lf
    Gonzalez 1b
    Kendrick 2b
    Van Slyke rf
    Uribe 3b
    Pederson cf
    AJ Ellis c
    Kershaw p

    • oldbrooklynfan says:

      Based on the last lineup Donnie put up against Bumgarner I think you will come very close to tonight’s lineup, with Agon, Pederson and Kershaw the only lefthanded batters..

      • crash24now says:

        Prior lineup against MadBum (on April 22nd):

        Rollins ss
        Turner 1b
        Puig rf
        Kendrick 2b
        Van Slyke lf
        Heisey cf
        Uribe 3b
        Ellis c
        Kershaw p

        Donnie may slot Hernandez in at cf, similar to how he used Heisey last time. I’m not 100% against that, because Joc has yet to show really good performance against lefties (all his HRs are against RHP). But Hernandez better shine on defense if that’s the case.

        Of course, Puig is unavailable, as is Crawford, so it’s almost a foregone conclusion that we see Guerrero in left and Van Slyke in right. The biggest question in my mind is whether Donnie will sit Rollins, who is still struggling to reach a Juan Pierre OBP as a leadoff hitter.

        Rollins’ career OBP is .327, compared to Pierre at .343. Interestingly, Pierre’s OBP in his last MLB season, 2013 with the Marlins, was .284. Rollins OBP in 2015? .282.

  67. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Mattingly is lucky that his job, right now, is NOT based on a vote of the fans.

  68. crash24now says:

    Enrique (Kike) Hernandez is being called up today. Don’t know the balancing move yet.

  69. crash24now says:


    Rollins ss
    Hernandez cf
    Turner 1b
    Kendrick 2b
    Van Slyke rf
    Guerrero lf
    Uribe 3b
    Ellis c
    Kershaw p

  70. crash24now says:

    Every Day ‘Dre will be getting lots of playing time, now that CC has a torn oblique. Just not against the lefties.

  71. oldbrooklynfan says:

    hummmm. Only two off days in the month of May.

  72. trublu4ever says:

    You all know how I feel about these stupid lineups so, I’ll just watch the game and pray for a miracle!

  73. trublu4ever says:

    Just wonder what DumbDonnie would do if Bum gets injured, or roughed up in the first or second inning…and has to come out of the game?!

  74. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Well here we go again.

  75. Dodger4life says:

    It’s Time For Dodger Baseball!!
    I hope the Boy’s do knock Bum around early….

  76. oldbrooklynfan says:

    WOW that was quick.

  77. The Beav says:

    Yup, great line-up to trot out there against their ace. Sure am liking Rollins in the lead-off spot too. Real productive.

  78. nedisajerk says:

    Suck to here about Gibson being diagnose with Parkinson Disease.

  79. vl4eccjr says:

    Could somebody please just spray some Raid, or Black Flag on Aoki please?!

  80. The Beav says:

    Can we call Barnes up? I done with Ellis.

  81. oldbrooklynfan says:

    In case anyone doesn’t know, the Bum faced the minimum in the first 3 innings.

  82. The Beav says:

    Think I’ll check back in in an hour or so. I doubt this line-up can even muster that run back.

  83. vl4eccjr says:

    Oh well!
    Something beats nothing I guess.
    With this potent lineup, I have low expectations. . .

  84. oldbrooklynfan says:

    This game is full of surprises.

  85. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Rollins is in a horrendous slump.

  86. lbirken says:

    Not much to say about this game other than the Dodgers continue to struggle against premier pitching. Hopefully they can scratch out enough runs to come back in this game. It seems Kershaw has been behind in most of his starts so far this season.

  87. oldbrooklynfan says:

    The patient is still breathing.

  88. colliethec says:

    Well this is a bummer.

  89. colliethec says:

    Happy Birthday to Nelly by the way!!!

  90. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Last chance hotel.

  91. crash24now says:

    Baez bailed out Howell. Now Santos bails out Paco.

    Let’s get a couple runs!

  92. trublu4ever says:

    Another “L” for you, Donnie!

  93. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Well at least the Rockies lost and we’re still in first place.

  94. vl4eccjr says:

    Wow Donnie! That PH worked out real well. . . . NOT!!!

  95. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Scully ought to check the standings the Giants are only 3.5 games back.

  96. crash24now says:

    Let’s win tomorrow and win the series.

  97. The Beav says:

    Nice gimmick line-up produced the same results as it did last time against MadBum. To me what this asinine line-up of Donnie’s subliminally says to his team is that you regulars aren’t good enough to beat this guy, so I had to go with this line-up.

    Go with your best players against the other team’s ace. If you lose then you lose with your best, not some BS line-up.

    • trublu4ever says:


      • The Beav says:

        I guarantee this team will never take the next step with Donnie [mis]managing.

        • JhallWally says:

          I will second that… We will not win a championship with Dildo…. Notice, I have taken the N off the end… I now think he is a complete dildo. Just a tool for upper managements satisfaction..

    • JhallWally says:

      I am getting real tired of Dildo trotting out the 2nd string when Kersh pitches.. It is total Horse S..t!!!

      • JhallWally says:

        These babied players need to suck it up…
        They need to suck it up and play ball… Back in the day, players didn’t need days off after a night game.. Good Grief…

  98. JhallWally says:

    Happy Birthday Nelly!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  99. The Beav says:

    Happy Birthday Nells!

  100. kahliforni says:

    To follow up on enchanted’s thoughts of “Donnie’s subliminal” messages. To me, he’s telling his lefties they can’t hit Bumgarner—or any other lefty, for that matter. Now, if I’m Pederson, I’m thinking, just how does my manger come to that conclusion? Has he seen me play my whole career? Or is it just Donnie’s “book of baseball truths” again? That same thinking produced another really odd moment in the 8th inning, namely, Donnie letting Ellis bat, with Grandal pinch-hitting on deck. With the switch at catcher coming anyway, Donnie is saying that, along with Grandal, his best shot at nailing Bumgarner is still AJ Ellis…because he’s a righty? I may be stupid, but Grandal bats for Ellis (inept pinch hits for inept….hell, why even give Grandal an AB, for that matter) and that leaves Ethier, Pederson or Gonzalez ready to take a hack instead of Ellis. Yeah, I know, they’re all lefties, heaven forbid. Ughh. Play your best players. Forget the righty/lefty thing. But that’s Donnie’s expertise: chiseled in stone, “safe” formulas, like the pitcher bunting with a guy on first. Black and white. What Donnie lacks, and will always lack, is imaginative, on-the-fly, gray-area thinking. Call it in-game “feel.”

    Happy BD, June. Make sure Wally and the Beav do their homework.

  101. koufax1963 says:

    what does this do for Alex Guerrero. He starts and gets Nada. Will Donnie send him to the bench as PH superior?
    Again, Donnie takes the bat out of the starter to have A-Gon PH, looking for a miracle is not the way to manage a team.
    Mad bum is an exceptional pitcher, so put our most experienced hitters, well then kiki is the exception, and almost makes Donnie seem like a baseball savant.
    But Im down with all of you, these right/left match ups are up for sabremetric scrutiny, not donnies will and whim.
    I don’t remember steve garvey (or pick another) being taken our because of the starting pitcher. and how in the hell is Joc going to learn to hit the elite pitchers, if he doesn’t face them. Yea Im pissed!
    Lets win the series tonight, lets see a cohesive unit, instead of one that has to look at the posted starting line up everyday to be assured they are starting.

  102. crash24now says:

    It will be interesting to see who plays left field today against Vogelsong. Andre Ethier will likely be playing right field, which will be true against all RHP starters as long as Puig is on the DL. Now that Crawford is also on the DL, there are no other left-handed hitters to play left field. So Donnie’s choices are Scott Van Slyke, Kike’ Hernandez, and Alex Guerrero. Kike’ has the hot bat with two hits last night, so…?

    Meanwhile, Zack Greinke seems to be the #1A ace this year, as Kershaw is not quite there yet. Vin Scully said last night that Kershaw’s opposing batting average in the first 15 pitches in 2015 is .412 compared to .187 last year. So Clayton’s not starting off on the right foot in his starts this year. Greinke has been doing very well.

  103. crash24now says:

    Dodgers on the All-Star ballot:


    Who is truly worthy of an All-Star start? Gonzalez, Kendrick, and maybe Pederson. Rollins, Grandal, Crawford, and Puig are not even close. Uribe had a slow start, but now may be worthy after his current ten game hitting streak.

    • koufax1963 says:

      I personally have gone cold on the idea of having Dodgers as All- Stars. Those that make it great, but rest over travel and game, is what is best for the team, IMHO, of course.
      Most of this disgust is over the method “All-Stars” are now chosen.

  104. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Personally, I think Kershaw, aside from the first inning, pitched his best game so far this year. Bumgarner, regardless of what most Dodger fans think, is one of baseball’s best pitchers, no matter what you think of Mattingly’s all right handed (with the exception of Kershaw) batting order. Com’on give these guys some credit when it’s due.
    Tonight should be a better game with Greinke on the mound against Vogelsong or this race will be tied up in a tighter knot.

    • crash24now says:

      I’ve got a good feeling that Greinke will beat Vogelsong. Bumgarner is not better than Kershaw, but they are close to equal.

  105. crash24now says:

    I wonder what the lineup would look like if Donnie were to reconstruct it, just based on the numbers. Let us start with OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage). The OPS shows who does the most damage offensively. We’ll start with the 2015 numbers:

    Guerrero 1.564
    Gonzalez 1.195
    Van Slyke 1.082
    Pederson 1.014
    Ethier .959
    Kendrick .885
    Turner .749
    Uribe .668

    Next, the question is whether the above numbers, given the small sample sizes represented by just twenty games of data, are predictive of what could happen over the next 142 games? Guerrero’s OPS is very likely overstated. But the guy can definitely hit, so he should somehow be in the lineup. Gonzalez’s OPS is likely overstated, but he’s going to be in the .800 to 1.000 range. Van Slyke and Pederson can rake, but probably around .800, not over 1.000. Ethier is swinging the bat a lot better than last year, so he could possibly come in between .750 and .850. Kendrick is solid. Turner is questionable, given his history prior to 2014. Uribe has needed a ten game hitting streak just to get to .668, but he had a slow start. He may or may not end the year in the low .600’s.

    The next issue is that the above lineup has no clear catcher (unless you really really want some adventure by putting emergency third catcher Van Slyke as the every day catcher; I know that I do not). So here we go with take two on the lineup reconstruction:

    Guerrero .900 ss
    Gonzalez 1.000 1b
    Van Slyke .800 lf
    Pederson .800 cf
    Ethier rf
    Kendrick .850 2b
    Uribe .630 3b
    Grandal .600 c (you didn’t really want to see AJ .427 there, did you?)

    Aside from the obvious glaring issue of throwing Guerrero in at shortstop, we need to re-sort this lineup for speed considerations. Gonzalez should not be clogging up the base paths as the #2 hitter. Could Guerrero play shortstop? Would he be as bad as Hanley? Could Uribe somehow move fast enough to play shortstop? Do we really want Rollins with his .580 OPS in the lineup because he’s the only capable shortstop? Will Kike’ Hernandez take Rollins position at shortstop later this season? Will Seager come up when Rollins goes to the DL (phantom or otherwise) in 2015? Time will tell.

    Pederson cf
    Guerrero ss
    Gonzalez 1b
    Kendrick 2b
    Van Slyke lf
    Ethier rf
    Uribe 3b
    Grandal c

    Only one thing in this whole discussion is clear. Rollins isn’t getting the job done as leadoff hitter.

    • koufax1963 says:

      Crash, I think you are about ready to step in the office of Zaidi, and convince him to watch the Donnie metrics, this team is too good to get to far beyond the pack, so firing Mattingly won’t be fired because “the team is dropping out of contention”, but more of a reality check of “losses attributed to managerial decisions”,
      but could they ever be proven?

  106. Dodger4life says:

    A quote from Little Jo-Jo Horseshit
    “He’s getting better and better as the season is going on. There are some years when you get runs and some when you don’t,” manager Don Mattingly said. “He did his job.”
    So, is Mr. Horseshit manager hinting that Kershaw won’t get any run support this year??? Is he already conceding that these Dodgers can’t hit top tier pitching? Is this what he see’s when he looks into his magical analytical crystal ball???

    Meanwhile here is a quote from Kershaw
    The bottom line is I just got out-pitched. Madison pitched better than I did and they won the game,” Kershaw said. “Not a whole lot of analyzation going on, I just got out-pitched. You tip your cap.”

    Mr. Horseshit manager, perhaps you should bury your excuses inside your next roadside dumpling…
    I’m really growing tired of Donnie’s lame ass analogies
    I agree Rollins is a step slower and so is his bat, than, when he was a valid lead-off guy/ top tier short-stop… It doesn’t mean he is without value He is far better defensively than Hanley/Turner and most likely Kike, or anyone else on the 40 man not named Barney… Surely one of the smart guys can find a way to use Rollins in a more effective manner until Seager is ready! Take the lead-off bat out of his hands!! Since this club won’t play hit and run…can’t seem to swipe a base…and relies on the bunt in must move the runner over situations…you could make Gonzales the fucking lead-off guy and come out ahead of what you have going on now!!

  107. Dodger4life says:

    Rumor has it that Donnie was retained for 2015, because he was able to produce documentation that his managerial 8-ball does indeed have a Harvard Pedigree. The notarized document in question, clearly states that his managerial 8 ball is the same one that sat on the dorm room desk of Harvard’s most notorious drop-out “Bill Gates”!!
    Friedman then asked to see the 8-ball in question…and upon giving it a good shake and muttering the words, “Does this trump my Tulane education and good sense to acquire Joe Maddon?” The 8-ball responded with “Absolutely”!!
    And now you know the rest of the story!!
    Good Day!!

  108. kahliforni says:

    Donnie is a nice man who is the victim of Ned Colletti’s infamous directive to Joe Torre upon hiring him–“Bring your successor with you.” What the hell kind of GM tells a new hire to bring your successor with you? Anyway, Grandpa Joe’s nepotistic “vision,” and Ned’s clueless fawning brought us the Dodger era of Donnie Baseball, who in my opinion, ranks right up there with Jim Tracy, another nice guy who delivered meaningless wins en route to play-off failure.

    • The Beav says:

      Kahli, are you of the opinion as I am that given the talent over the last 7 years that Joe and Donnie have had to work with, any other manager would’ve at least come away with a couple of pennants? 2008, 2009, 2013, 2014 all were right there.

      • kahliforni says:

        Certainly last season was a big crash and burn. I would have assumed by September that SOMEBODY–Donnie, Ned, Stan, Honeycutt, Magic(????????), would have figured out the bullpen for the 7th and 8th innings. Letting Kershaw dangle over the fire in the late innings of the NLDS was sad and incompetent.

  109. Dodger4life says:

    Have no fear folks…The Dodgers are a virtual lock to be in first place come Friday morning… which means, wit,h or without a series win over the Giants tonight…Ice Cream will be on the breakfast menu come May 1st!!!

  110. crash24now says:

    Lineup – Damn!

    Pederson CF
    Rollins SS
    Kendrick 2B
    Gonzalez 1B
    Van Slyke LF
    Ethier RF
    Grandal C
    Uribe 3B
    Greinke P

    That’s progress. Joc is now leading off. Donnie still needs to move Rollins down to #7 or #8. No use leaving a black hole ahead of Kendrick and Gonzalez.

    • The Beav says:

      Joc’s no more protected now in the line-up than he was batting 8th. At least leave Dre batting 2nd.

      This couldn’t have been a Donnie decision though to bat Joc leadoff. That had to come from upstairs.

      Batting Rollins #2 though I can guarantee came from Donnie.

  111. koufax1963 says:

    I think it will up to Grienke to start hitting to win, Grandal gets out, Uribe gets a free pass, so Zack Attack with the Bat coming. I don’t know how going from #8 to lead-off with Joc really helps.
    I’m ready to see. GO DODGERS!

  112. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Well, You all got your wish. Pederson leading off.

  113. The Beav says:


    See me stroll out of the dugout
    On your Samsung® tablet screens
    Playing match-ups you can bet
    Don’ know what metrics mean
    Honey to the left of me
    Wallach to the right
    Ain’t got no savvy
    Ain’t got no balls
    Managings my plight

    I’m a D-U-D
    A troglodyte
    Book is always right
    Brains on overload
    Watch me implode

    I’m fifty, gray and mighty cliché
    I’m a modest man
    Painful interviews that I give
    You can’t stand
    So bunt with your pitcher
    And bunt in the ninth
    Strap on your DilDon
    Put the pen in some strife
    No hit and runs to be found
    Hope that homers abound

    I’m a D-U-D
    A troglodyte
    Book is always right
    Brains on overload
    Watch me implode

    (Guitar Solo)
    D-U-D oi oi oi
    D-U-D oi oi oi
    D-U-D oi oi oi
    D-U-D oi oi oi

    Hoosier Dynamite (oi oi oi)
    Players win in spite (oi oi oi)
    I’m a Torre clone (oi oi oi)
    Dumb as a stone

    ©FriedCo Enterprises 2015
    FriedCo Enterprises, “I bought him.” (think Andrew Dice Clay)

  114. Dodger4life says:

    More wisdom from Little Jo-Jo Horseshit…

    Ken GurnickVerified account

    Mattingly said moving Pederson to leadoff mostly the result of Carl Crawford’s injury and Pederson’s early success.

    • Dodger4life says:

      If it weren’t for that darn oblique injury we’d have Crawford in the #1 slot… ‘Cause Crawford’s .260 obp > Rollins .281 obp!!
      But as luck would have it/fate forced our hand, we’ve decided to go with the guy who’s eager to prove himself and has a .458 obp!!

  115. oldbrooklynfan says:

    Maybe taking Rollins out of the lead off spot may help him. How, I don’t know but maybe the change might help him.

    • Dodger4life says:

      I have no doubt Rollins will hit for a higher average than he is at the present time. His first few games in a Dodger uniform he had some success.

  116. Dodger4life says:

    Let’s Go Dodgers, Let’s Go!!

  117. oldbrooklynfan says:

    The Giants again don’t waste any time getting on the board.

  118. Dodger4life says:

    Smart base running by Aoki…the ball wasn’t yet in Joc’s glove as he made the turn…he never even broke stride and was safe by the same distance as the ball from Joc’s glove.

  119. oldbrooklynfan says:


  120. trublu4ever says:


  121. Dodger4life says:

    Imagine that!!

  122. trublu4ever says:


  123. oldbrooklynfan says:


  124. oldbrooklynfan says:


  125. trublu4ever says:


  126. vl4eccjr says:


  127. Dodger4life says:

    Adrian (I just try to hit line-drives) Gon-zales makes it 2-1
    Followed by (I couldn’t beat out Crawford in the Spring)…Play Everyday Dre…who makes it 4-1 Dodgers!!

  128. The Beav says:

    Nah, Joc can’t lead off.

    I have to admit, so far I was wrong about Dre being done. Hope they let him play left when Puig gets back.

  129. trublu4ever says:

    And….my boy with the glove!

  130. Dodger4life says:

    Happy Birthday (My name ain’t Bench Bunny!!)
    Nice catch, #16

  131. oldbrooklynfan says:

    WOW What’a’catch.

  132. The Beav says:

    Greinke’s not fooling too many people.

  133. Dodger4life says:

    Over 50 pitches through 3… We’ll probably be seeing Nicasio tonight??

  134. oldbrooklynfan says:


  135. vl4eccjr says:

    Whoa! What’s this? Rollins joining the hit parade trying to get his average above his weight. . .

  136. Dodger4life says:

    La da dee la dee da
    Someone Done Throw’d Another Ball Wrong Vogelsong!!
    Atta Boy J-Roll!!

  137. The Beav says:

    Evidently Vogelsong graduated from the Brandon McCarthy School of Pitching.

  138. trublu4ever says:

    Uh, oh…they’re making some noise! Settle down, Zach!

  139. vl4eccjr says:

    Greinke is pretty far from being sharp tonight. . .

  140. Dodger4life says:

    Greinke threw that one up, up, and it went away!! Buh, Bye, Baseball!!

  141. The Beav says:

    Looks like we’re going to need another 5-6 runs tonight.

  142. The Beav says:

    Be surprised if Greinke gets through 5.

  143. The Beav says:

    Nicasio. He’s due for an implosion.

  144. oldbrooklynfan says:

    We got one run back.

  145. vl4eccjr says:

    Greinke is probably done. I’m surprised he made it through 5.

  146. Dodger4life says:

    I think they win this challenge…

  147. oldbrooklynfan says:

    By the time we get back Vin will know that it’s only the top of the7th.

  148. Dodger4life says:

    Liberatore is earning every bit of his pay!!!

  149. The Beav says:

    Nice inning by Hatcher. It would be a great help if he came around.

  150. vl4eccjr says:

    Well two outta three ain’t bad. . 😉
    Another fine job from the bullpen!!!

  151. trublu4ever says:

    Way to bounce back and take the series Boys.

  152. The Beav says:

    I get a better nights sleep when they win. Yimi’s been nails.

    • Dodger4life says:

      Glad to hear someone’s getting some sleep…Win or lose, I worry about my 1st place ice cream…I’ve given up too much to let that slip away!!
      Yimi needs a nickname….

  153. Dodger4life says:

    Boom! Boom! Boom! Boom!
    Sure would be nice to be breaking out the brooms…but a series win is very enjoyable….
    Nice Job, Boy’s!!

  154. oldbrooklynfan says:

    2 up on Rockies.

  155. Dodger4life says:

    All Along The Blue Watchtower
    There must be some kind of way out of here, ”
    Said the joker to the thief,
    “There’s too much confusion, I can’t get no relief.
    Business men – they drink my wine
    Plowmen dig my earth
    None will level on the line
    Nobody of it is worth.”

    “No reason to get excited, ”
    The thief – he kindly spoke,
    “There are many here among us
    Who feel that life is but a joke
    But you and I we’ve been through that
    And this is not our fate
    So let us not talk falsely now
    The hour’s getting late.”
    All along the blue watchtower
    Princess kept the view
    While all the women came
    And went bare-foot servants too
    Outside in the cold distance
    A wild cat did growl
    Two riders were approaching
    And the wind began to howl, hey.

    Coming soon: The Yimi, Jansen Experience

  156. JhallWally says:

    Woo-Hoo, win streak… Now, start playing the A lineup when Clayton pitches you stupid douche bag of a manager…

  157. trublu4ever says:

    Maybe the Boys were sending him the message!

    • JhallWally says:

      I sure hope so.. Dildon is very slow catching on…

      • JhallWally says:

        As a matter of fact, he has been the manager for four years and I don’t see any improvement… I am just longing for the day the so called brain trust cuts him loose…

  158. JhallWally says:

    Kind of looks like our new brain trust pulled a Ned with McCarthy. It’s turning out just like the Schmidt deal… I had hoped that we had better baseball minds in charge.. Keeping Dildon and Nedcompoop really made me wonder… I have my doubts about our new managements baseball acumen… So far, I am not impressed.

  159. koufax1963 says:

    Why do I have a feeling Mc Carthy has become a Billingsly.
    Although grienke not sharp, he had some fortitude! Good Job.
    So I hope Joc likes the lead off role, he seemed to do quite well.
    Dre made that outstanding catch to save some runs.
    The BP was fabulous last night, I like what I saw.
    I cant complain all the gnats fans here are quiet.

  160. oldbrooklynfan says:

    I would mark April 2015 as a good month for the Dodgers, if only for the fact they’re holding on to first place. The Giants got off to a slow start, except against us. The division race is about as tight as it could be but the Dodgers look like they can retain the lead.

  161. colliethec says:

    Nice W last night. Glad to see Donnie finally make the move with Joc and listen to Jane!

    I will say that Donnie has improved in a few ways – he doesn’t always do a double switch when making a change & he did pull Anderson the other day when he quickly lost it. In the past he wouldn’t of gotten someone up in the bully until a few runs had scored.

    That being said he still has issues in the beginning of the season – I personally don’t think he uses ST correctly and so his ST continues into June.

  162. crash24now says:

    Ethier played great last night (and all of 2015) with the bat and that catch. The way he is playing, it’s like he’s all in for winning the World Series. I just hope Donnie doesn’t get in his way.

  163. koufax1963 says:

    I always liked Dre hope he stays in form. There is a consideration that might be looming: Dodgers need a steady starter now, Dre has always been dangled as trade bait. Much rather see Crawford go than Dre, but that recent injury assures Crawford will not be touched, no team wants to spend that money for DL designate.
    Puig will be back and SVS most likely will stay, so its the bench for Dre, and he may just ask to be traded, because I can see he enjoys being in the starting line-up.

  164. colliethec says:

    Frias starting tomorrow night.

    • The Beav says:

      I can understand Frias, Baker and Bolsinger for spot starts, but now that you know McCarthy is out for the duration, I’m really surprised we don’t see Wieland or Lee (or both) become a set part of the rotation for the next few weeks. When Ryu gets back you just keep the better one of the two as the 5th starter.

      • oldbrooklynfan says:

        I would just wait, watch and see how Frias, Baker and Bolsinger do, since they are the chosen ones at the moment.

  165. JhallWally says:

    Seems to me that the McCarthy deal is looking alot like the Schmidt deal A total bust. And this one is on our new brain trust. Can’t blame this one on Ned…. It seems funny, that the first deal that they made, turned out just like Neds first move. A total bust… I am not impressed with our new ownership and upper management so far…

    • oldbrooklynfan says:

      I thought Ned’s first move was Ethier.

      • The Beav says:

        I believe his first trade was Ethier. One of his first big splashes in the major FA market was Schmidt. Schmidt, JP and Jones. Could Ned pick ’em or what? He’d brought in minor FAs like Nomar, Mueller and Lofton, but Schmidt was multi-year big money.

      • dodgereric says:

        Ned’s first move was to wear his gnats ’02 First Loser ring to his introduction press conference.

        • kahliforni says:

          Eric, is it really you!?!?!?!?!??!

          Actually Ned’s very first transaction was signing Olmedo Saenz…then the trade for Ethier… and over the next seven days he signs SIX players (McCourt must have discovered gold or something): Sandy Alomar, Bill Mueller, Nomar, Furcal, Chris Truby (??) and Kenny Lofton. And a mere two weeks later he signs Tomko. No, I don’t remember all this, had to look it up!

          • dodgereric says:

            Yeah kahli, the one the only (thank God!) I finally remembered my WordPress password. No shit. You should have seen some of the comments that got trashed because I couldn’t log in. Just stopped trying for a while, but I never stopped reading.

            No one ever accused me of being too smart. 🙂

            Hey, don’t forget that Ned also dragged that piece of crap trainer down here with him from frisco – the one who sat on his hands while watching Bonds work his “better baseball thru chemistry” experiment. I’ll wager he’s as responsible as anyone for stuff like Puig playing until he did real damage to his hammy.

          • The Beav says:

            Dad’s home!!!

          • trublu4ever says:


        • kahliforni says:

          Geez, you mean we’ve been missing all your venom due to a brain lock? NOT FAIR!!! We demand an abundance of insight now. By the way, am I too hard on Donnie B. as a manger, or is he really in over his head, in your humble opinion?

          • dodgereric says:

            Hi Beav and TruMom! I’ve scrawled my password in crayon on my desk, so that unless someone comes in here and cleans it, I should be ok for a while.

            kahli, I’m sure that Donnie is an upstanding American citizen, a good neighbor and nice to kids, dogs and old women. But he couldn’t manage his way out of a wet paper sack if you gave him a machete and a hand grenade – even if you pulled the pin for him. Which isn’t a bad idea actually. That idiot would bench Cobb and Ruth if a lefty was on the mound.

  166. crash24now says:

    Corey Seager has been promoted to AAA Oklahoma City.

    A couple good months there, then he can come up for the push into the playoffs?

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